[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070725
SWODY2
SPC AC 070724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
ROC 10 W IPT 25 NE LBE 35 SW TOL 45 E MLI 35 WNW LWD 10 NNE CNK 30
NE GAG 60 E LBB 20 NNW MAF 15 NNW INK 20 WNW HOB 40 SSE EHA 40 N GCK
20 WNW EAR 30 NE ANW 30 W PHP 25 NW DIK 60 ENE MOT 35 ENE JMS 20 S
BRD 20 SE IMT 40 WSW PLN 15 SE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG TCS 45 S
LVS 10 S GLD MHN RAP RIW BOI 35 N OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E
BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS GSP 5I3
DAY UIN TOP CSM SJT 45 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES STATES...

BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE FROM SD/NEB INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AXIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2.

...MN/SD/NEB/IA/WI...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER EASTERN NEB/SD BY AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM LOW INTO SOUTHERN WI.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ONLY A WEAK CAP AND STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEB/SD...AND NORTHWESTWARD FROM
LOW INTO CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWESTERN ND.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MN/WI DURING THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  ALSO...STRENGTH OF
FORECAST LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES
IN STRONGER CELLS.  THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO WESTERN
NY/PA. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FRONT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...NEB/KS/OK/TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WEST TX INTO CENTRAL NEB
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG.  WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NEB.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND
STRONG DIURNAL.  HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SUGGESTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 05/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.