[Swody2] SWODY2

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS02 KWNS 061716
SWODY2
SPC AC 061714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
ECG 45 SE LYH 45 ESE BMG 20 E UIN 25 W FNB 10 SSW OLU 20 S YKN 15
NNE MKT 20 E GRB 15 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SW ERI 15 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 30 W Y22 55
ESE REJ 45 WSW RAP 35 S SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 10 NE BAM 35 N RNO
35 SSE MHS 45 NNW MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 45 E DAN
25 ENE SDF 40 NW ALN 20 NNE MKC 35 SE DDC 50 E AMA 10 S BGS 45 ESE
P07 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 E 4CR 25 SSW LHX 40 W IML 9V9 40 WSW
STC 45 E ESC 110 ENE OSC ...CONT... 35 NW SYR 15 E GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA
MOVES EWD AND INTO SE CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME STATIONARY FRIDAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.


...ERN PORTIONS OF CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...


LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WARM SECTOR
S OF THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS
SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION N OF THE FRONT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
DURING THE MORNING WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET VEERS.


...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SEWD MOVING FRONT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER CAP IN THIS
AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING. THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW
AND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED
MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY
MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL
THROUGH MID EVENING.


...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING...INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS CAP
WEAKENS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EWD THROUGH ERN NM...W TX...OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS. HIGH BASED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS
AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT ACROSS MT. OWING TO LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.