[Swody2] SWODY2

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS02 KWNS 060752
SWODY2
SPC AC 060750

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ORF 25 SE UNI 15 SSW DNV 35 SSW OTM 10 NE FNB 20 W LNK 15 W SUX 30
ENE OTG 40 NNE RST 15 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 50 WSW DIK
55 NNE RAP 40 WSW RAP 30 SE SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 30 N BAM 65
NNW LOL 35 SE LMT 55 N MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 15 N ROW 15
ENE TAD 40 W IML 40 NNE ANW 30 SE AXN 45 S IMT 85 ENE OSC ...CONT...
20 NW ART 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 20 E ORF 40 SSW IRK 10 SSE MHK 25 SE
DDC 45 NNW CDS 50 WSW SJT 45 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PARALLELS MODERATE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY.  A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT EWD
ATOP BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LEADING SYSTEM WILL AID IN
PUSHING SURFACE FRONT SSEWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY/OVERNIGHT LIFTING SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY NWD OVER INTO NRN
IL/IA AFTER DARK...AND INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG NOSE OF RESPONDING
SSWLY LLJ.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. CAPPING WILL AGAIN
BE A HINDRANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.  EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGIONS...AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THIS
MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ERN PORTION
OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY.  ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN BREAK THE CAP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY WITH IT A THREAT OF
SEVERE.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING
INTO IA/SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ...WHICH
MIGHT REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  SHOULD
DEVELOPMENT BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...BOW ECHO/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN CAP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...AND SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.  SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO
STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE WARRANTED.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT PLAINS...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE PAC NW
FRIDAY...WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TO H7 COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY FOCUS
MOIST CONVECTION INTO ERN ORE/SERN WA AND WRN ID.  APPEARS LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP UNDER PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. 
THIS MIGHT SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS.. 05/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.