[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ
60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN
20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN
60 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 NNE SAD 30 ENE
INW PGA 15 SSE U24 20 SW DPG 15 NNW ELY 60 SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW
BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA 25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W
EPH 35 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25 S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW
ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40
SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK 15 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 
NEXT IN A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE FROM NRN
ONTARIO TODAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY
EVENING.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID-WEEK.  

MEANWHILE...BLOCK PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH
A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER LOWS OFF CA AND OVER
THE NRN PAC BASIN.  WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE.  

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IN ERNEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ADVECTING 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN WY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT TSTMS. STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...
THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE EVENING.  VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS...THOUGH EMBEDDED IN WEAKER
INSTABILITY...WILL OCCUR FROM WRN CO AND NERN UT NEWD INTO SWRN WY. 
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NNEWD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES DURING
PEAK HEATING TUESDAY.  MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN SWRN PARTS OF WY AND
WRN CO.  
  
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL TSTMS ACROSS THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AGAIN TUESDAY.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL LIKELY LIE ACROSS PARTS OF ORE AND IN CNTRL ID POSSIBLY AIDING
IN A MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM CLUSTERS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK...BUT INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

...CNTRL-LOWER GREAT LAKES...
PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EWD
THROUGH ONTARIO AND LIKELY INTO PARTS OF WRN/NRN NY BY TUESDAY
EVENING.  A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE
...BUT MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN 1000 J/KG OR LESS.  NONETHELESS...
MODEST WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE ANY TSTMS TO EVOLVE INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID MINUS TEENS
H5 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN AN
AXIS FROM ERN WI ACROSS LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO. WHILE LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME
WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW WBZ
LEVELS AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
VIGOROUS TSTMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  OTHERWISE...KINEMATIC
SET-UP CONSISTING OF UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT
OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.