[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290731
SWODY2
SPC AC 290730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
APN 35 E AUW 25 N ANW 50 S PHP 50 ESE REJ 10 NNW Y22 15 SSW BIS 35
NNE FAR 30 N ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 25 NNE 3B1
70 WNW CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI 20 SSW YNG
15 ENE MFD 25 ENE BEH 15 S LNR 30 ENE FOD 10 NNE OLU 50 S EAR 25 WNW
HUT 35 E ICT 35 ENE SGF 20 NE PAH 15 NNW JKL 20 SW SHD 20 NE WAL
...CONT... 65 N OLF 35 WNW ISN 30 NW P24 35 WSW DVL 35 NNW GFK 35 E
RRT ...CONT... 50 SSE DMN 50 SE GNT 10 E CNY 25 NE PUC 25 ENE ENV 15
SSW BAM 50 SE TVL 40 N SAC 55 NNW UKI 10 N ACV 10 ESE OTH 15 N PDX
75 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SD TO UPPER MI
AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ONTARIO MOVES EWD OVER MAINE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NRN MANITOBA DIGS SEWD
TO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. FARTHER W...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE...WHILE A WEAK/COMPLEX FLOW
REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
INTO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW TX TO SRN KS BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  W OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CA...WITH A BELT OF DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW
MAINTAINED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR NW.  A BROAD PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING
WITHIN A TROPICAL AIR MASS RESULTS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR NW...WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE
CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.

...SD TO NRN WI/UPPER MI AREA...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NWD/NEWD FROM THE PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
ERN SD AREA TO NRN WI. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. 
MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  A FEW
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE EVENING.  WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH FORECAST OVER TX/OK/KS GIVEN THE MUDDLED FLOW REGIME NOW
PRESENT OVER THIS AREA...AND THE LIKELY INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.  ASSUMING THE ETA/GFS FORECASTS ARE REASONABLY
ACCURATE...THEN THERE WILL BE A BELT OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER W/NW TX.  THIS 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW AND VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

...NE CA TO ERN WA/ID AREA...
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PROFILES WITH STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
HAIL.  THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR.

..THOMPSON.. 06/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.