[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280730
SWODY2
SPC AC 280728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ
60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN
20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN
60 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25
S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW
P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40 SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK
15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSW FHU 20 S GCN 25 NNW CDC 30 SSW ELY 60
SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA
25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W EPH 35 NW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS....

...GREAT LAKES AREA...
ACTIVE NRN STREAM WITH BELT OF CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
 FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.  WITHIN THIS NRN
STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKEN BY THE END OF DAY 1...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
NOW OVER NRN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO DIGS SEWD TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION IN A BAND NEAR THE COLD FRONT 
FROM ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE
EVENING.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT THIS AREA.  OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI.

...INTERIOR NW AREA...
A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
INVOF CA AND NV.  A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NNWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM NE CA TO THE ID PANHANDLE AREA.

...HIGH PLAINS AREA...
A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRAW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ABSOLUTE WIND
FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...BUT STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL/ERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EWD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.  WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

..THOMPSON.. 06/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.