[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271734
SWODY2
SPC AC 271733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
LHX 25 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 10 W DEN 25 NNW FCL 30 E CYS 10 SW SNY 40
E AKO 50 NE LAA 20 S LAA 50 SSE LHX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 50 WNW SAD 25 SE
INW 30 SSE U17 50 NE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30
N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S
...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40
NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN
25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E
MSV 15 E NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT
35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY.  LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT/SHEAR NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY
EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT
DROPPING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS VLY DISTURBANCE. THESE FRONTS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF PLAINS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD KANSAS CITY.  AS A
RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER. 
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL
LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...MAIN SEVERE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
AND A SMALL MCS MAY FORM IN THE EVENING ACROSS ERN CO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER
TODAY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPGRADE TO
 CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

...CAROLINAS NWD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SRN PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING.  TSTMS MAY TEND TO
DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OVER CNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY
AFTERNOON.  INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL BE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY.

...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM THE DIURNAL TSTM CYCLE AND
BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN THE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY.  IN
FACT...MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS MAY INCREASE WELL WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST OVER THE DESERTS.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND W TX.  GIVEN HIGH CLOUD
BASES/INVERTED-V PROFILES...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY.  LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

..RACY.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.