[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270727
SWODY2
SPC AC 270725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E DUG 50 NNW GUP
55 NNE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW
RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NE
CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40 NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB
EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN 25 NE ALN 20 NNW
AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E MSV 15 E NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT
35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...WITH A BELT
OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NEW
ENGLAND...AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF
COAST AND SE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TO THE S OF A RESIDUAL FRONT.  A
WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL INTRUSION IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE OH VALLEY...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ROTATES EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TOMORROW.  A
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH WEAK NWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  FARTHER W...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CA...WITH A
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM NM/CO
NWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST BENEATH 20-30 KT WLY/NWLY FLOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE.  DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY EWD/SEWD DURING THE EVENING.
 TOTAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 KT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. 
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.

...INTERIOR NW...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

...CAROLINAS...
THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD
OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EJECTING TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS CENTRAL GA/SC. 
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...BUT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 06/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.