[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261735
SWODY2
SPC AC 261734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT
50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 20 WSW ATY 30 NW MSP 45 W
CWA 35 W GRB 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV
35 W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE
EWN ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 25 ESE TUS 60 NNE TUS 45 SSW GCN 20 N SGU
35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR
55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT JAMES BAY CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD LATER THIS
WEEKEND.  UPPER WAVE...NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WILL ROTATE
AROUND THIS FEATURE...REACHING THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW
OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY AS THE NRN STREAM
SYSTEM DIGS SEWD.  UPSTREAM...PART OF THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE
PAC NW COAST WILL DROP SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY.  BUT...THE UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SETTLING SWD WILL STALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A NEW FRONT...MOVING SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
CANADIAN IMPULSE...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD IN A ZONE OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.  AS THE TX UPPER LOW EJECTS
NEWD...BELT OF MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG
SERN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
FLOW REGIME...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP BOWING LINE SEGMENTS GIVING
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

...MID MO VLY TO THE CORN BELT...
STRONG DCVA WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VLY AND CORN BELT
AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN IMPULSE DURING PEAK HEATING.  BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE TSTMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST...REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN MODEST SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SURVIVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH ISOLD THREATS OF HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OWING TO RECYCLED MOISTURE
FROM DAILY TSTM CYCLES.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY VALUES BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. COVERAGE IS APT TO BE MORE ISOLD ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NWD INTO WRN CANADA LATER TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.