[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260732
SWODY2
SPC AC 260730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT
50 SE BIL 55 WNW CDR 35 NNW MHN 15 ENE ANW 25 SSW MHE BKX 20 W MSP
35 SE CWA 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV 35
W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE EWN
...CONT... 70 SW TUS 35 SSW GCN 20 N SGU 35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW
BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR 55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E
BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION.  A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
JAMES BAY AREA...WHILE A BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.  FARTHER S...A PERSISTENT SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER TX WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO BUILD EWD TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS.  IN THE WEST...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH INVOF OF CA THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A STRONGER
TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS LIFTS NEWD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WEAKENS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES WITHIN A
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF ID WHERE SEVERAL DAYS
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM CO TO NM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW/LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY AT BEST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL
SHEAR. FINALLY...A MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THOUGH
LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OVER THIS AREA...30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITHIN THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

..THOMPSON.. 06/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.