[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251704
SWODY2
SPC AC 251703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30
NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 25 SSW SOW
50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW
DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 35 ENE 3HT 60 SSE 81V 25 WSW PHP
25 NW ABR 50 NW AXN 35 SSW EAU 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL
45 W LWD 40 NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE
MKL 10 WNW 5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
JAMES BAY UPPER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
ERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM INTO THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  UPSTREAM...AN
OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  DISTURBANCES...EMANATING FROM
AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE N PAC BASIN...WILL TOP THE RIDGE IN
THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CP AIR MASS SPREADING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE
NEW ENGLAND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND THE MID-SOUTH.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
REDEVELOPING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT...AND OTHER BOUNDARIES SITUATED ALONG THE GULF
COAST...WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. 
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG
THE NM/CO HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
HOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TSTMS WILL ALTER THE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION.  PRIND THAT GIVEN SUFFICIENT RECOVERY... TSTMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE VCNTY SURFACE LEE LOW OVER SERN CO AND FAVORED TERRAIN
FEATURES AS WELL...AIDED BY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NWLY
FLOW MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THOUGH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 30 KTS OR LESS...
DIRECTIONAL/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  QUICK EVOLUTION
INTO MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/MCS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS FAVORING A SSEWD MOVEMENT INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM...SWRN KS AND TX/OK PNHDLS AS THE SLY LLJ
DIURNALLY INCREASES.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
RECYCLED MOISTURE OWING TO DIURNAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
WEEKEND...BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE.  THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE. 
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN PARTS OF
WA/ORE...JUST EAST OF AN ANTICIPATED MARINE PUSH.

..RACY.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.