[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250703
SWODY2
SPC AC 250702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30
NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 45 WSW SOW
50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW
DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 40 SE LWT 20 SSE CDR 10 NNE MHN 30
SE RWF 35 NNW LSE 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL 45 W LWD 40
NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE MKL 10 WNW
5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP LOW INVOF JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD AS AN EMBEDDED
SPEED MAX MOVES NEWD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS SPEED MAX...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SEWD
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND SWD INTO THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES.  FARTHER W...THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL NWLYS
WILL PERSIST FROM MT TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
REGIME ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NM TO MT. 
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHERE A WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME...ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...ERN CO/WRN KS/NE NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA...
AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE E CENTRAL/SE CO AREA DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN CO FROM DAY
1 INTO DAY 2.  EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/  TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS DURING THE DAY...IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS BUT ROUGHLY
150-180 DEGREES OF VEERING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. 
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT...AS
WELL AS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD SWD TOWARD
THE NW TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY THIS AREA WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO STABILIZE THE PLAINS AND FORCE THE THREAT AREA
TO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE. 

...ERN WA/ORE TO ID AND EXTREME WRN MT...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  GRADUAL ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITHIN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

..THOMPSON.. 06/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.