[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241728
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
CRE CLT 35 E ANB SEM MSY 25 SE 7R4 10 WNW HEZ MSL CSV 20 E LOZ 10
ENE CRW EKN AOO IPT BGM 30 WNW ALB 35 SE GFL 20 NNE BAF 30 ENE POU
10 NW JFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
MRF CNM LVS TAD COS CYS LAR RWL 50 NW CPR 50 NNE CPR 10 NE DGW CDR
MHN 10 SSE LBF MCK GLD 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN
35 SW PRC IGM P38 TPH 45 S TVL RBL 45 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX
50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40 E BIL 15 ESE 81V VTN EAR
ICT 35 ENE CNU VIH BLV ZZV UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC
20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL
GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN/MID ATLANTIC
COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS....

MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND CLOSED LOWS/LOWER HEIGHTS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
A BELT OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING EAST OF TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER....
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERN
CANADIAN CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS
QUEBEC BY EARLY FRIDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING AND
WEAKENING...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM AND VERY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S...WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID/
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING.  SIMILAR CAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG FRONT FARTHER NORTH...FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER.

MODELS SUGGEST NEXT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND MAY NOT REACH THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHERN TROUGH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY...INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF
NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
HIGH LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...SHOULD
PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

FORCING ALONG FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.  MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BEFORE
WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OFF THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
DEVELOPING LOW IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE MOIST/TROPICAL IN NATURE ACROSS MUCH OF
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

...WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...
GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LEE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WARM/ UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEARS TO EXIST IN UPSLOPE REGIME OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/ UPPER FLOW
REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS,

..KERR.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.