[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240740
SWODY2
SPC AC 240739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35
N 4CR 20 NW RTN 35 WNW COS RWL 10 NNE BPI 30 N JAC 15 NW COD 40 NNW
DGW 30 NW MHN 30 NNE HLC 35 SE DDC 15 SSE AMA 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 45 N CAE 30 W HKY SSU 35 E AOO 20 NNW POU 10 SSE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN
25 SW FLG 55 NW GUP 35 S CNY 40 ESE DPG 40 N BAM 35 WNW SVE 45 ENE
ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40
E BIL 15 ESE 81V 10 NNW ANW 20 ESE HSI 25 NW EMP 35 ENE CNU 20 WSW
UMN 15 ESE MKO 35 W TXK 40 E ELD 40 WNW MSL 35 SE SDF 20 SW FKL 35
SSE UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC
20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO SRN NEW ECG...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP VORTEX NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY E INTO
QUEBEC.  A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND WRN AND
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL GLANCE THE UPR MS VLY AND GRT LKS
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH BLOCK OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUING TO
RETROGRESS W AND STRENGTHEN EXISTING RIDGE OVER YUKON...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASED WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN/PACIFIC NW.

ELSEWHERE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE CAROLINA CST. 
FARTHER W...WEAK WLYS AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER AZ SHOULD RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLNS.

...NC/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENG...
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY LATER TODAY WILL
CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. 
THE FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS MAIN
SUPPORTING IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND BOUNDARY BECOMES
PARALLEL TO DEEP WSWLY MEAN FLOW.  THE FRONT
WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL-ENHANCED
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PA/SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.

LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 DEG C
PER KM/...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN NEW
ENG.  BUT COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR AND
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

FARTHER S...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TO VARYING DEGREES
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE E OF THE NC MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN SRN STREAM JET. 
LAPSE RATES OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVELS.
 BUT CONVERGENCE INVOF OF THE WAVE...COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
THE MAIN THREATS POSED WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...
PATTERN OF WEAK/LARGELY UNFOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG AND JUST E
OF THE RCKYS FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO NM/W TX.  THE GREATEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP
IN PARTS OF W TX/NM...WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /WITH VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KT/ WILL LIKELY EXIST IN ERN WY/ERN CO.

OVERALL SETUP EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS IN CO/WY...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.  MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY FARTHER S.  THE ACTIVITY IN WY/CO MAY CONSOLIDATE
INTO AN MCS THAT CONTINUES SE INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS WITH A HAIL/WIND
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE NM/TX STORMS MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...ELSEHWERE...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS.  ALONG THE CNTRL
GULF CST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF MCV-TYPE
CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION.

..CORFIDI.. 06/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.