[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231739
SWODY2
SPC AC 231738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
BML 10 N ALB AVP ZZV BMG BLV ICT GAG 15 ENE AMA 45 N TCC RTN PUB DEN
CYS BFF 10 E IML BIE LWD BRL SBN 45 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT
81V CDR MHN OLU DSM MLI BEH 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NE BOS 35 SSW
POU 10 N ILG WAL ...CONT... 40 S HUL 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 45 SE YUM
DAG NID TPH BAM WMC SVE RBL 20 E CEC EUG 20 SW SEA 15 NNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSV HTS 35 SSE LUK
MDH 10 E SGF PNC END LTS 55 ESE LBB 35 WSW SJT SAT GGG PBF 10 SE MEM
CSV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE LWR GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES....

BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LARGE...DEEP CENTRAL CANADIAN
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO.  THIS IS
PROGGED TO OCCUR AS MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
ROTATES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO GULF/MID AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE NORTH OF LINGERING SOUTHERN SURFACE
BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS IN PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR OF MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE NEAR FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA... NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL KANSAS...INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION.

STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ENHANCED
BY TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS LINE SLOWLY
ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
GIVEN RELATIVE DRYNESS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE COOLING MAY OCCUR
FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHICH MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER
SUNSET.

OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
FRONT WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.  BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SHEAR PROFILES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 25/00-03Z TIME
FRAME.

BENEATH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME CLOSE TO THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/BELT OF STRONGER FLOW
WILL LIFT OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...AND MAY
ENHANCE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...IN MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS.

..KERR.. 06/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.