[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230732
SWODY2
SPC AC 230730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
BML 25 WNW EEN 40 NW CXY 45 WSW UNI 15 SSW MVN 15 ENE ICT 45 WSW CSM
20 W DHT 25 E PUB 40 WNW 4FC 45 SW CPR 50 ENE DGW 20 NNW LBF 20 NE
LNK 30 SSE CID 20 WSW GRR 45 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT 30
N 81V 15 NW VTN 25 SSE SPW 20 ESE LNR 10 WNW MBL 55 ESE ANJ
...CONT... 20 NE BOS 40 SW ABE 15 E HTS 15 SSE MDH 40 ESE ICT 65 SE
CDS 35 NW JCT SAT 15 E CLL 40 SW TXK 55 E LIT 50 S BNA 10 SW GSP 15
SSW CRE ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 15 S LAS 20 NE P38 25 E BCE 25 NNE INW
75 NE SAD 35 NW 4CR 45 NNW LVS 50 S GUC 45 NW PUC 30 SSW ENV 40 WNW
OWY 50 ESE 4LW 45 NW SVE 35 NW RBL 20 E CEC 10 NNW EUG 20 SW SEA 15
NNW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS THROUGH
THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BAFFIN ISLAND BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS W ACROSS NRN CANADA
ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE WRN PART OF THAT COUNTRY.  THIS WILL KEEP DEEP CLOSED LOW
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT MARKING WRN/SRN FRINGE OF JAMES BAY
SYSTEM WILL DROP S/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY. THE 
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID MS
/OH VLYS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE
ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS.

FARTHER S...MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM
THE WRN GULF CST ACROSS THE SERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

...LWR MO/MID MS VLY THROUGH OH VLY TO NRN APLCNS...
A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ON-GOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...IN ZONE OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MANITOBA/MN UPPER IMPULSE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION
FROM IL/IND EWD INTO OH/SRN MI.  FAIRLY STEEP /AOA 7 DEG C PER KM/
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY
SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS WITH
HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD E INTO WRN
PA/NY BY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST BUT SUSTAINED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OFFSET STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL COOLING.


...CNTRL PLNS...
FARTHER SW...SURFACE HEATING AND EXISTING ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MCS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ALONG COLD FRONT INTO
SRN NEB/KS AND NW MO.  STRONG HEATING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 
MODERATE /30 KT/ DEEP WNW TO NWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.  DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SLY
LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO  CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS
THAT DROPS S INTO SRN KS/NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT.

...NRN GRT BASIN INTO NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND CO. 
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN THE NRN RCKYS/ INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.  BUT DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
MAY SUPPORT SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND.  SOMEWHAT GREATER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN WY/CO...WHERE STRONG
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

...GULF CST/LWR MS VLY...
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS LA/AR/MS AND AL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH SRN STREAM
JET.  POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV CIRCULATIONS MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE
DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..CORFIDI.. 06/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.