[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221737
SWODY2
SPC AC 221736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
ILM 25 WNW FLO ATL GAD HSV CSV 30 SW SHD 20 E SBY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALO
LSE OSH MBL 35 SSW HTL JXN SBN 35 SE MMO PIA IRK 10 ENE LWD DSM ALO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW GGW P24 JMS AXN
MSP GRB 10 NNE APN 155 E APN ...CONT... 30 NE PBG BFD 20 WNW MIE 35
NNW STL CNK RSL GAG 10 SE SPS ARG LEX MRB 10 E NEL ...CONT... 80 SSW
GBN 10 NW BLH PMD NID DRA 50 SW SGU 10 WNW GCN GUP 4SL 35 NNW ALS 35
SSE LND 35 SSE WEY 25 W 27U 55 S BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 WSW SVE 45 NW RBL
25 WNW MFR 35 SSE SLE 30 SSE OLM 25 NNW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS  PARTS OF THE TN VLY/SRN
APPALACHIANS/SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION....

MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS INCLUDES DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.

...TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO EAST TEXAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
LOWER/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES.  700-500 MB WAVE OVER ARKANSAS AT 23/12Z IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F...MEAN MIXED LAYER OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG STILL APPEARS LIKELY.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION...AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR
STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS INTO EARLY
EVENING...FROM PARTS OF MID/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION....
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
BROADER CENTRAL CANADIAN CIRCULATION WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL
THERMAL RIDGE FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE
INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

ALTHOUGH AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MOIST GULF COAST STATES BOUNDARY
LAYER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ENHANCED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE
STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL
EXCEED 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN STRONG AND FAVORABLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID DAY OVER PARTS OF
WISCONSIN/EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS..BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER DARK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OTHER MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/
AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MONTANA.  BEST COVERAGE MAY BE IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA
ROCKIES...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR
ACTIVITY.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF UPPER
RIDGE AXIS.  FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SEEM
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION OFF THE MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE TUCSON
AREA...WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED MICRO BURSTS.

..KERR.. 06/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.