[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190734
SWODY2
SPC AC 190733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
END 15 NE CAO 30 SSE PUB 20 WSW FCL 25 NW DGW 35 ESE 81V 50 SE PHP
35 NNW BUB 25 E LBF 30 WNW CNK 50 ENE MKC 45 NNW POF 15 SW ARG 30 N
HOT 15 NE MLC 20 ENE END.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 45 SSW INW
45 SE GNT 40 WSW RTN 50 SE GUC 30 NW GJT 50 WSW ENV 15 W OWY 40 NNW
SVE 45 NE ACV 30 SE EUG 25 SE AST 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE ANJ 35
NNE GRB 50 NE ALO 15 N MMO 30 SSE JXN 25 W CAK 45 WSW EKN 35 WNW GSO
35 ESE AND 25 W ANB 40 SSW MGM 35 SW ABY 20 ENE SSI ...CONT... 35 E
PSX 45 SE AUS 10 WNW TPL 10 NNW DUA 25 SW OKC 65 SW SPS 40 NE SJT 70
SSE MAF 30 SE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS/LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON
SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK OVER THE NRN BC CST. AN
IMPULSE IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DROP
S ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SE INTO WRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN ON MONDAY.  FARTHER S...A SERIES OF COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER IMPULSES EMANATING FROM STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND OVER CA WILL SHEAR E/ESE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS
INTO THE CNTRL PLNS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD
EDGE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST AS LEE TROUGHING INCREASES OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLNS. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS OK TO
RETURN NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS KS AND MO.  OVER THE NRN TIER...
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN IMPULSE WILL TRACK E ACROSS
MANITOBA/WRN QUEBEC...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE DAKS AND MN.

...ERN CO/SE WY INTO NEB/KS/MO...
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE MCS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N OF RETURNING WARM FRONT
IN NRN KS/NEB. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.  A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW
DESTABILIZE REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF MCS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. 
SUFFICIENT /40+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
REACH THE AR BORDER BY EVENING.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN
AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW N AND E OF LEE CYCLONE/
TROUGH AXIS FROM SE WY/SW NEB SEWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY DEGREE OF SURFACE
HEATING...AND BY PASSING DISTURBANCES IN SRN STREAM FLOW. 
COMBINATION OF 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR INVOF LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND ABSENCE OF
STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES....IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO THAT MOVE
E/SE ACROSS NEB/KS SUNDAY NIGHT.

...NRN PLN/UPR MS VLY...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE
DAKS/MN.  LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...BUT
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE WEAK.

...NRN GRT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

..CORFIDI.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.