[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 35 N WRL 30 NNW GCC 15 WNW RAP 35 SSW MHN 15
SSE DHT 35 WNW INK 35 NW GDP 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 50 SSW LVS
30 W PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 30 N
PIH 50 ENE BOI 50 W BOI 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40
E CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW 40 WNW
Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE ICT 15
SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI 35 NNW
CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BAND OF MODEST ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE CONUS. ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WWD TO THE COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE LARGE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE SETTLING INTO THE MID WEST/OH VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FRONT WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED
SOUTH TO NORTH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN NM TO WY/MT. MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM ERN NM N-NWWD INTO CNTRL WY.
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50KT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS. INITIAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOST LIKELY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADO THREAT. EVENTUALLY STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO
COMPLEXES WITH ONE POSSIBLY BECOMING ELEVATED AND SPREADING ESEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE OTHER POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING INTO MOIST
AXIS/LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...TN VALLEY...
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...FRONTAL
CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS.

...MID ATLANTIC...
STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A SMALL THREAT OF WIND/HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.