[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191735
SWODY2
SPC AC 191733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD
COS DEN FCL CYS 50 E DGW CDR VTN MHE FSD SUX LNK BIE FLV 30 NNE SZL
40 WNW TBN HRO FSM MLC OKC CSM DHT TAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS HOU 45 SW TYR DAL
FTW SEP DRT ...CONT... DUG SAD 60 NNW SVC ALM ROW CVS 40 NE TCC RTN
RKS OWY SVE 25 SW MHS MFR 50 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE MQT RHI EAU
RST ALO CID DEC BMG HTS BKW PSK HKY SPA CAE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO
OZARK REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER PACIFIC COAST
REGION.  LARGELY ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN STATES IS
FCST TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT IN UPPER MIDWEST...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SEWD FROM MANITOBA ACROSS MN/ERN SD LATE IN PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
NOW IS EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG EXTREME NRN
SASK/ALTA FROM POLAR LATITUDES.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NWRN ONT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN...CENTRAL/SWRN SD AND SERN WY
BY 21/00Z.  SEPARATE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN OVER S-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...BETWEEN E-CENTRAL CO AND NRN TX PANHANDLE.  MORE PRECISE
POSITION DEPENDS STRONGLY ON OUTFLOW EFFECTS OF DAY-1 AND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION.  THIS LOW SHOULD LINK WITH SFC COLD FRONT OVER
NWRN OK BY END OF PERIOD...AGAIN WITH SOME POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY
MODULATED SFC FRONT NOW OVER RED RIVER REGION WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OK AND TX PANHANDLE...RESULTING IN TWO LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONES FOR POTENTIAL DAY-2 CONVECTIVE FOCI.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AFTER DARK...
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...IF OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPS DAY-1 AS
PROGS INDICATE.  HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP LATER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED N THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW AND N
OF WARM FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT
SUPPORTING UPSLOPE MOIST ADVECTION.  ETA FCSTS ONLY 5-10 KT FLOW
THROUGH FIRST 200-300 MB AGL.  HOWEVER...PRIND ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF 10-20 KT WINDS IN
BOUNDARY LAYER...ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STORM ROTATION WITH 150-300 J/KG SRH.  SFC LAYER ELYS WILL COMBINE
WITH AROUND 30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS REGION. MOST PROBABLE INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED AREAS
OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ASCENT SUCH AS RATON MESA OR PALMER
RIDGE. MORE CONDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INVOF DRYLINE OVER TX
PANHANDLE...DIRECTLY ALONG WARM FRONT E OF SFC LOW.  8-9 DEG C
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON  MLCAPE 2000-3000
J/KG AWAY FROM OUTFLOW POOLS.

ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY
TO ITS E...SUPPORTED BY MOIST 40-50 KT LLJ AFTER 21/03Z.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS KS AND/OR NRN/CENTRAL OK TOWARD
OZARKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL.

...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALSO MAY FORM INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEB INTO MN...BUT WITH MORE
MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF WEAKER THETAE IN
INFLOW LAYER.  BECAUSE OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
FAVOR SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN BRIEF WINDOW DURING
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.