[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180736
SWODY2
SPC AC 180734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 45 SSE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 10 E RAP 35 SSW MHN 15
SSE DHT 40 NNE HOB 30 S ROW 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW
40 WNW Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE
ICT 15 SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI
35 NNW CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 40 W ELP 40 SSE LVS 30 W
PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 10 NW IDA
10 SSW 27U 30 SSE BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40 E
CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO S ATLANTIC CST
ON SATURDAY...WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE NATION.  A SPEED MAX IN CONFLUENT JET PATTERN OVER SRN ONTARIO
WILL CROSS QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENG.  IN THE WEST...A PART OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS AND
REACH THE NRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE PLNS DURING THE NEXT
36 HRS WILL SHUNT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CNTRL AND SRN RCKYS.  DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE LARGE
SCALE FORCING...COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL
FLOW...MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO ERN CO AND NM.

AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF
THE WLYS...WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IN
WY AND CO.  THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL
LIKELY BE RELATIVELY NARROW W/E EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
AXIS.  SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ELEVATED MCS 
THAT MOVES E INTO NEB SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
HAIL.

FARTHER S IN NM...EXPECT STORMS TO BE MORE DIURNAL AND PULSE IN
NATURE...WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 25 KT/.

...UPPER SOUTH...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TN
VLY...WHERE SURFACE-BASED MLCAPE MAY REACH 3000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK.

...NEW ENG...
A FEW STORMS MAY PRECEDE FAST-MOVING IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC.  BUT
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW CONVERGENCE SHOULD
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR.

..CORFIDI.. 06/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.