[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170731
SWODY2
SPC AC 170730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS
AMA RTN COS 20 WSW AKO 25 ESE IML 35 E LNK 35 WNW OTM 35 NNW CGX 40
SE AZO 20 SSE DAY 25 E SDF 10 WNW PAH HRO 55 NNE ADM LTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GPT MLU DAL
BGS 25 SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP ROW TCC 40 N LVS 45 N GUP BCE TPH
BIH FAT SAC MHS RDM ALW 50 SSW S06 DLN WRL BFF BUB FOD LSE MTW HTL
10 ENE OSC ...CONT... SSI 35 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MS VALLEY...

BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY.  MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM KS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO LOWER MI.  VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.  TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEAR LIKELY ON DAY2.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS OVER EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.  MODELS ONCE AGAIN DEPICT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS/OK
DURING THE EVENING.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS KS/OK
OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMNANT FROM DAY2 MAY BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MO/IA DURING THE MORNING.  THESE STORMS MAY
RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS IL/IND.
 DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
FRIDAY.  NO DISCERNABLE UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THIS
REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK...SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN FORM.

..HART.. 06/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.