[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
SBY CHO CRW HTS LEX BWG CKV PAH MDH SLO CMI BEH LAN 50 NE MTC
...CONT... ART RUT 20 SSW BOS 30 E BID.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RTN
TAD PUB COS DEN FCL CYS 40 NNE CYS BFF 50 ENE SNY CNK 35 ESE SLN ICT
30 NW END SPS CDS RTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX CLL GGG TXK
PGO DUA ABI BGS 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 85 SSW GDP CNM 60 WSW CVS LVS
DRO CEZ PGA 45 SSW SGU TPH TVL RBL MHS LMT PDT LWS MSO 35 NNW HLN
3HT 60 ENE BIL MLS GDV 70 NNE ISN ...CONT... 45 WNW INL FAR MBG RAP
CDR MHN BUB OFK FOD LSE CWA ESC 45 N APN ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC AND
SWRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED FROM N-CENTRAL
CANADA SWWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW REGION...WITH SEVERAL TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES MOVING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. STRONGEST OF
THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL ALTA...IS EXPECTED TO TURN SEWD ACROSS SRN SASK AND NRN
MT BY 18/00Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MT
AND ND...WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NEAR ND/CANADA BORDER.  SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA -- SHOULD
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY START OF PERIOD OVER ERN CO AND
KS...STRONGLY INFLUENCED ON MESOSCALE BY DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

MEANWHILE...MOST OF MID/UPPER PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION
WILL EJECT NEWD AND BECOME ELONGATED/EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING WLYS
ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND NERN STATES THROUGHOUT PERIOD.  PRIMARY
VORTICITY CENTER WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NEWD
FROM AR ACROSS WV...WITH TRAILING/WEAK LOBE BACK TOWARD AR.

...OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES...
ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOWS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD EXTENSION OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE -- FROM IL TO NY.  THIS FRONT WILL BE A PRINCIPAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY-2...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MLCAPE IN 800-1500 J/KG
RANGE. PLUME OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
ASCENT ALOFT --- ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEM NOW OVER
ARKLATEX -- SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA
DURING DAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT FCST TO BE VERY STRONG -- AMIDST EARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL WINDS 20-30 KT.  HOWEVER...THIS REGIME
CAN FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS OR LEWPS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FRONTAL FORCING AND MARGINAL TO MDT INSTABILITY.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON FROM
SERN WY INTO NERN CO -- SPECIFICALLY OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES
AND ADJACENT CYS/PALMER RIDGES.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
DRYLINE FROM KS/CO BORDER REGION INTO TX PANHANDLE.

AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS OR
WRN OK IN FORM OF ONE OR TWO EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS CLUSTERS WITH
SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL POSSIBLE.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH

1. ANY UPSLOPE SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL ZONE...AND
2. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ALONG DRYLINE AND SURVIVE INTO
DEEPER MOIST LAYER 50-100 NM FARTHER E.

STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...MOIST ADVECTION...CONVERGENCE AND SRH ALL
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF EFFECTIVE FRONT...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED.  THEREFORE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES -- IS STRONGLY TIED TO
PLACEMENT OF CORRIDOR OF POSTFRONTAL ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  THIS IN
TURN DEPENDS ON EFFECTS OF DAY-1 CONVECTION.  ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND WHICH AREA OF INITIAL CONVECTION
-- UPSLOPE OR DRYLINE -- WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT MCS...SO THAT THE
OUTLOOK IS DRAWN TO ALLOW FOR EITHER POSSIBILITY.

...ND...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  ACTIVITY WILL BE IN REGIME OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL LIFT AND
LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AHEAD OF SASK/MT TROUGH. 
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM DIABATIC HEATING...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR...AND LACK OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE
SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED EVENT.  HOWEVER...HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.