[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151713
SWODY2
SPC AC 151711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
RFD IRK CNU 35 SE PNC CSM AMA RTN PUB 35 NW GLD 30 WNW SUX 30 WNW
RST 25 SSW CWA 30 NE MSN 40 SW RFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ALI 35 SE HDO
10 N SEP 50 SE SPS 25 WSW SPS 65 NE BGS 50 SW LBB 70 SSE LVS 25 S
GNT 45 SE IGM 40 NNW DAG 45 N BFL 15 E MER 40 WSW TVL 35 NE RNO 45
WNW ENV 30 SSW BPI 35 WNW RWL FCL 30 WNW AKO 35 ESE SNY 15 SSW ANW
25 SW BKX 25 SSW STC 50 SE DLH 20 NE CMX ...CONT... 40 SW MSS 15 SW
GFL 10 NNW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 50 W P24
70 W MLS 10 E BZN 60 N 27U 20 S S06 75 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
SWRN WI...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...

DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS GRADUALLY
WEAKENED WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENT OF WLY FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FORCING PRESSURES TO RISE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...DRIVING A
COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIATOR FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BOTH LATE DAY1...AND AGAIN ON DAY2.  LATE DAY1
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
PROPAGATING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REGENERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/IA.  OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY MORE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR WIND...MAINLY
ALONG THE SWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.

...TN/OH VALLEYS...

WRN GULF COAST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR NEWD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ SFC DEW POINTS BUT MODEST
INSTABILITY...SBCAPES ROUGHLY 1500J/KG.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY AID THE PRODUCTION OF SMALL SCALE
SUPERCELLS.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG A
ZONE FROM WRN TN INTO OH THERE MAY BE A NEED TO UPGRADE THIS REGION
TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.