[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141734
SWODY2
SPC AC 141733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
OTM 30 NNW CNK 35 ESE MCK 30 NW BBW 25 NE YKN 30 ESE FRM 20 N ALO 20
S CID 35 SW OTM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
SBY 40 SSW MRB 10 S ZZV 15 SSE CLE 20 ESE ELM 35 S RUT 20 NNE HUL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ESE
ANJ 50 SW HTL 15 ENE CGX 10 N UIN 10 N MKC 45 SE DDC 20 WNW LBL LHX
30 E DEN 15 NNW SNY ANW 10 SSE ATY 50 ESE FAR 20 ENE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS
25 N MKO 40 WNW TBN 10 SE SZL 55 W GAG SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE
MER RBL WMC ENV VEL LAR CDR ABR 40 WSW FAR 25 SW DVL 35 WSW GDV 15 W
GTF 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE APN 15 N AZO 40 NE FWA 30 NW YNG 15
NE UCA 20 NE MSS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS NRN
IL/NRN MO/NRN KS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AND
WILL LIKELY DELINEATE NRN EDGE OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE
NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...OVER ERN SD DURING THE
MORNING ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AND WITHIN MARGINAL TO MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
INTENSE CONVECTION BY 18Z ALONG SWRN FLANK OF MCS AND NEAR
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO NERN NEB/SERN SD.  LEADING EDGE OF MCS
MAY INTENSIFY AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD AND CAP
ERODES.  WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE
FRONT...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SSWWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. REGION WILL REMAIN
WITHIN SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL IA BY 21Z. 
THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO
MCSS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WARRANTS UPGRADE TO A MODERATE
RISK FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF IA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT...ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO MN
AND NRN WI.  HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
50S MAY SUFFICE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS. SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING ACROSS THIS
REGION AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. 
DEPENDING ON PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AS FORECAST
BY THE MODELS...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT ESEWD
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EVENING.

...NORTHEAST...
APPEARS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN
NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. ETA AND GFS DISAGREE WITH
EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTO THE ERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL
MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE E-W INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS PORTION OF
THE FRONT.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER NE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
LINES/CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY INTO THE APPALACHIANS EWD TOWARDS THE COAST.

..EVANS.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.