[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140720
SWODY2
SPC AC 140718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GRB
MKE 10 W UIN OJC 15 E LBL 15 WNW EHA PUB 10 SSW DEN 10 NNE SNY ANW
HON AXN DLH RHI GRB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
WAL 10 W CHO 30 NE EKN PIT 20 ENE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS
ADM OKC GAG DHT SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE MER RBL WMC ENV VEL
LAR CDR ABR FAR TVF P24 GGW 50 ENE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...

BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FLOW.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2.

...NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER MN/WI INTO NY/PA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER
NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POCKETS OF
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.  AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED.  CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD OVER NY/PA...AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NY/PA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.  ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR
ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...ETAKF SOLUTION
SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...ALSO SUGGESTING A
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS
PARTS OF KS/NEB/IA.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AND
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/IA/WI/NRN IL/NRN MO 
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG
SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS...AND IN UPSLOPE REGION OF EASTERN
CO.  WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. 
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART.. 06/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.