[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131723
SWODY2
SPC AC 131722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
EFK 10 ESE JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SBY RIC 35 NE BWG 20 NW CGI 15 E
LBL 10 ENE PUB DEN 55 W BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 NE VTN 55 NW LWD 35 NW BRL
35 N APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW P07 45 WSW CVS
40 NNE SAF 45 WSW 4HV 10 NNW BIH 25 ENE TVL 25 SSW BAM 40 NW EVW 60
SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DHT 30 NNW PVW
45 E BGS 10 SE BWD 45 NNW HOT 25 WSW HRO 30 NE DHT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE MID ATLANTIC/GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.  FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER
MT...WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL AID IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH TRAILING
PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS
CENTRAL MO/KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL BE
CLUTTERED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SFC TROUGHS FROM EARLIER
SYSTEMS.

...GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
THIS AREA WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE WLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH 50+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREADING THE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER
MI/WRN NY INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND.  THOUGH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY... MOST LIKELY INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. 
MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...WITH LESSER CAPE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WHEN CAPPING WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEAR...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

...ERN GREAT LAKES/NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...AND EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY
FOCUSING MECHANISMS REMAIN HARD TO IDENTIFY THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...HOWEVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ALONG
NERN PERIPHERY OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BOTH MAY INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD AS
CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID
EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB...
ETA AND GFS BOTH DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVERGENCE BECOMING BETTER
FOCUSED ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL INTO KS/MO
LATE IN THE DAY.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF E-W SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO KS...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
EXCEED 70F.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY
ADVECT WWD INTO NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE ESELY.  SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
DAY.  ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR INTO
KS/MO...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR
EWD...THOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG NOSE OF
STRONG LLJ AFTER DARK INTO NEB.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE OF A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SRN TX...
WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL-LIKE SYSTEM SPREADING NWD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WHICH...GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LCLS IN RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE...SUGGEST
AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM DUE TO AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

LOW PROBABILITIES ALSO INCLUDED INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN TX ALONG
BACK EDGE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.  ETA DEVELOPS 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...UNDER
35 KT NLY MID LEVEL JET.

..EVANS.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.