[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130745
SWODY2
SPC AC 130744

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
SBY 10 W RIC 15 ESE 5I3 10 WSW LEX 15 ESE STL 20 SSW OJC 20 WNW SLN
15 N LBF 15 NW ANW 40 SSW MHE 35 W ALO 35 WNW RFD 20 S GRR 20 NE MTC
...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 10 ESE JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 WNW TXK
20 NW PGO 50 E OKC 25 NE SPS 35 SSW SJT 35 ESE FST 35 NNE FST 30 SE
LBB 45 NNW CDS DDC 40 NW GCK 50 NNW CAO 40 NNE SAF 15 E FMN 10 NNE
U17 45 SSW BIH 55 NE MER 35 SE TVL 35 ENE EVW 45 SSW REJ 55 SW MBG
60 SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ORF 15 E RWI 20
S FAY 30 SW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN 1/3RD
OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STRONGER FLOW...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEB EWD
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODULATED BY DAY ONE ACTIVITY...BUT
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
MODEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL TO THE THREAT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS FUELED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL EXIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB/NERN
KS INTO SRN IA/FAR NRN MO. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET
MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING MECHANISMS FOR RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 4500-6000 J/KG FROM FAR
NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB EWD INTO FAR NRN MO/SRN IA ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT. DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
DAY ONE ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME AREA. AT THE PRESENT...CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES AS
WELL. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA INTO FAR WRN
IL OVERNIGHT AS SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JET AIDS IN IT/S EWD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF DAY ONE
CONVECTION...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID
ATLANTIC...

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM DAY ONE ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE AFTERNOON. HEATING /DESTABILIZATION
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THESE REMNANT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A BROAD
BELT OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WINDS/HAIL.

FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON
OVER SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IND/IL AHEAD OF STATIONARY FRONT
AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA MAY
BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FROM
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER CANOPY FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND
AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

...NRN NEB/FAR SRN SD...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE 900-800 MB
LAYER SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FROM 30-40 KTS SHOULD
AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...WI/NRN LOWER MI...
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NRN WI/NRN LOWER
MID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH...AND DEGREE OF HEATING FROM UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MUCAPES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF
LATER FORECASTS INDICATE BETTER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL...THEN STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES/SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NWD OUT OF THE NRN GULF
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. 15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS/LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFS/ETA ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FURTHER ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP FORECAST TO
LESS THAN CATEGORICAL SEVERE FOR NOW.

..CROSBIE/HART.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.