[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121659
SWODY2
SPC AC 121657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ALN 50 SSE SZL 30 S CNU ICT HUT 30 ESE LNK 30 N ALO 20 NE LNR 35 NNE
MMO 15 ENE BMI 25 N ALN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
LBE CRW LEX SGF OKC CSM GAG RSL HSI FSD EAU MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 10 WSW MAF
20 SE GCK BBW 9V9 MBG 65 NNW REJ 40 WNW 4BQ CPR LAR 35 W FCL 30 NNW
EGE 45 ENE VEL 20 NW BPI 15 W IDA 80 NNE BOI 10 S ALW 45 NW 63S
...CONT... 20 WNW MFE 25 ENE NIR 45 ESE LFK 25 ESE MLU 40 E PBF 40 N
LIT 20 N PGO 25 NE DAL 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW ROC PSB 10 E SHD
45 E RWI 40 ESE EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS ERN KS...SERN NE...SRN AND
ERN IA...NRN MO AND W CENTRAL/NWRN IL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NWRN AND N
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  SEEMS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION A BIT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM
LATE DAY 1 THROUGH DAY 2 AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND
REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE FL PENINSULA.  MODELS THEN DEVELOP A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF DAY TWO.

SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE AN INTERESTING TIME DEPICTING THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURES WITH THIS TRANSITION. FIRST MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN AREAS OF THE MID
MS VALLEY BETWEEN 13/18Z AND 14/06Z AS THE NLY BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES INCREASES AS STRONG 100-110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO VERY
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA
...ALTHOUGH GFS STILL LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NRN MO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE EAST OF SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE FROM NERN NE SWD/SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL KS INTO W
CENTRAL TX.  THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE S OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE FROM NERN WI SWWD INTO NERN NE.  ETA MODEL INDICATES
THAT CAPE WILL BE NEAR/AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO /LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -12/ WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. 
QUESTION REMAINS WHERE AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER AREA FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION.

ETA MODEL WEAKENS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIFTS ENEWD FROM THE ERN PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.  FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS OF 40-50 KT AND 70-80 KT
RESPECTIVELY...WILL EXTEND FROM NE/IA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
THUS...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT COUPLED WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE OVER NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W CENTRAL IL
FOR BEST TORNADO THREAT LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH SUCH HIGH
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WILL EXTEND FROM
NERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA AND NERN KS BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM E CENTRAL
LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. 
THUS...LOOKS LIKE MODE WILL CHANGES AS THE GREATEST THREAT BECOMES
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.