[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111727
SWODY2
SPC AC 111725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
MKO 40 E SPS SJT BGS CDS 45 NE DDC EAR YKN RWF MSP AUW MTW 45 SSE
CGX 20 N SLO 10 NE UNO 35 NNE MKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI LBE LYH 35 SE EWN
...CONT... PFN 20 S AUO HSV 35 SW JBR 30 SE PGO 35 SSE DAL 10 NW LRD
...CONT... 70 S MRF 30 NE INK 15 E AMA 25 WSW LBL LAA ALS CEZ U17
U24 RIW 20 NNW 81V 45 NE 4BQ 65 W MLS BZN MSO 3TH 75 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY EXTENDING
FROM WRN MN AND WRN IA SWWD INTO NERN NM BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.  ALSO...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NERN MN SEWD THROUGH
NWRN OH INTO NERN NC.  THE ETA...GFS AND MM5 MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN BRANCH OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION
DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL THREE MODELS ZERO IN ON A VORTICITY MAX THAT
WILL ENHANCE STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN NE/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INDICATE STRONG MCS/MCC ACROSS THIS
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

MODELS ALL INDICATE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER
SWRN/CENTRAL KS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET TO 40-50 KT ACROSS OK INTO NERN KS.  THIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
 MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE SRN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO BE WLY/SWLY 50-55
KT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KT.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS LOOK TO BE
HANDLING FINER FEATURES OF THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH INDICATIONS
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT FEEL THAT KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGESTS
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF
ERN NE AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

MODELS ALSO SHOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S W OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO EXTREME W CENTRAL
TX.  DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORECAST CAPE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 J/KG OVER ERN KS.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
LAYER OF 40-45 KT OVER NERN KS ALSO SHOWS THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL INITIALLY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR STRONG/RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER
NERN KS AND SERN NEB SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN
CLUSTER FORMING INTO AN MCS/MCC OVER NWRN INTO CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT
WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...SRN NC INTO SC AND SERN GA...

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SWD DURING THE PERIOD ALONG THE
SRN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO 2500 J/KG.  MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE
REGION OF 30-40 KT WILL EXTEND SEWD ACROSS VA/NC EARLY IN THE DAY. 
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.