[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101715
SWODY2
SPC AC 101714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 35
W IWD 20 WSW OSH 20 ENE RFD 30 NNE PIA 15 SE BRL 30 NE P35 40 E OMA
15 E FSD 10 NW ABR 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 15 NNE CDS
30 ENE RSL 45 WNW OLU 25 SSE PIR 35 ESE REJ 40 W GCC 25 N PUC 25 E
U24 35 SSW DPG BOI 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE CMX 50 NNW TVC 25
NNW MTC 25 WNW AOO 20 E SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH
OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...NORTH OF A SFC LOW ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN MN EXTENDING
SEWD INTO NRN IL BY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AXIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MN. AS THE MCS MOVES EWD DURING THE
DAY...A DRYSLOT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO IA AND SRN
MN ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY
REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW
AT 500 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CREATE 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IA AND SERN MN.
OTHERWISE...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM.

FARTHER NW ACROSS NRN MN...NE SD AND ND...AN MCS ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING SOME BUT MINIMAL WARMING WILL
STILL YIELD ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IF MORE INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP THAN IS FORECAST...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS NRN
OK AND ERN KS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
OK AND KS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOADED GUN CHARACTERISTICS SUGGESTING
STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 KT WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING A NARROW WINDOW JUST
AFTER PEAK HEATING.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS IND AND OH FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPS WARM DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 30
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS WOULD FAVOR WET
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS STABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.