[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100748
SWODY2
SPC AC 100747

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
RRT 25 WSW IWD 30 NNW MKE 30 SE RFD 25 ENE P35 25 SSE OMA 20 E ATY
80 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 35 NNW CNK
50 NNE BUB 35 NE PHP 35 ESE REJ 45 SSE SHR 35 SW PUC 50 ENE ELY 40
NNE BOI 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 100 ENE CMX 50 NNW TVC 10 NNW FNT 25 SE
FKL 20 E SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FOCUS INTENSE CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD WITH SEVERAL
LOBES OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY.  MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NWD AND BECOME NEAR VERTICALLY
STACKED AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO SERN SASK.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS ND AND EWD INTO S-CENTRAL
MN/WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SRN END STALLING SWWD FROM IA
INTO WRN OK/CENTRAL TX.  IN ADDITION...E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT
WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THOUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS\MID MO RIVER VALLEYS...
MCS...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. EFFECTS OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY. 
HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF
WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN MN BY MID
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH.  GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR SURFACE WAVES/BOUNDARIES...SEVERE
THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM SERN ND/SWRN
MN INTO IA/WRN WI.  STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK.  WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES BELOW MODERATE
RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORMS EARLY IN
THE DAY.  FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...AIR MASS WILL BE
LESS UNSTABLE THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ABSENT OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG
INSTABILITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY
WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY...AS REGION REMAINS WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL AND WORTHY OF ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION...
THIS AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN VA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH CAN SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES OR DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE FED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM... MODEL
FORECASTS DO NOT PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. BUT LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS TIME OF
YEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES ALONG
THE FRONT AS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..EVANS.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.