[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091735
SWODY2
SPC AC 091734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
HLC 45 SE GLD 20 NE GLD 20 ESE AIA 20 ENE CDR 35 SW PHP 35 SW PIR 10
WNW 9V9 60 SSE 9V9 35 ENE BUB 40 S EAR 25 SE HLC 55 SW HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
CDS 25 E PVW 45 N AMA 30 WSW GLD 10 SE BFF 45 NE SHR 45 NW MLS OLF
25 WNW ISN MOT 35 SSE DVL 35 S FAR 50 WNW RWF 35 WSW SPW 15 WSW OMA
50 NE CSM 30 ESE CDS 50 SW CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 30 SW INK
20 E CVS 45 N CAO 25 NNW LHX 30 SSW DEN 25 SSE ENV 30 SSW OWY 65 ESE
BNO 55 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 WNW INL DLH 40 SE MTW 25 SSE DTW 20 NNW
FKL 40 SSW ALB BOS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 40 SSW GWO 25 NE MEM 20 N
POF 35 SSE TBN 30 NNE HRO 10 SSE FSM 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SD AND NW
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...GREAT PLAINS STATES...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER A LARGE WARM SECTOR...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
TAKE PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD CROSSING THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...HELPING TO TRANSPORT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC
DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE
VICINITY OF WRN NEB AND SW SD. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN NW KS AND SW NEB
RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY AFTERNOON. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS CNTRL NEB FOR 21Z THU SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING...SEVERE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW AND
DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF NW KS WITH BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS CNTRL
NEB...ERN NEB AND SRN SD. THIS BACKED SFC FLOW COMBINED WITH A
STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG VEERING IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL
STORMS THAT TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER-BASED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...WRN SD AND WRN KS LATE
IN THE DAY.

AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE NEWD AFFECTING IA
AND MN OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
CONSIDERING THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT IS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...WEST TX...

A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE STRONG AND
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. 
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST TX WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A BIT MORE
SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP CONSIDERING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM.
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN OH...WV
INTO MD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND
GFS AGREE...DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS VA AND MD WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HOURS AS STABILIZATION
OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.