[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090715
SWODY2
SPC AC 090714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
CNK RSL 55 ESE GLD 25 NNE SNY 20 W CDR 30 WNW RAP 25 N PHP 60 ENE
ANW 35 SSW OLU 15 NW CNK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
CDS 35 SSE AMA 35 SW GCK 50 W CDR 45 W 4BQ 50 NNW MLS OLF 40 WSW DVL
30 S FAR 10 NNE RWF 60 NE OMA 40 SSE BIE 30 NNW CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 40 SSW BJI
25 WNW EAU 35 S JXN 20 W DUJ 10 NE ISP ...CONT... 30 SW MOB 20 NNW
MEI 35 ENE TUP 55 NNE MKL 20 SW CGI 20 ENE UNO 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX
...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 ENE HOB 55 S LAA 10 WSW LIC 40 E DPG 20 E EKO
70 ESE BNO 55 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...SD...KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...

...PLAINS...
WRN U.S. UPPER LOW /NOW OVER CENTRAL CA/ WILL EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN
TROUGH THURSDAY.  SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ALLOW
SEASONABLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH
PLAINS...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM THE
OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  APPROACHING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN KS...AND SERN
MT...AS LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS DEEPENS LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE DRY LINE AND PUSH INTO
WRN KS/WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY PUSH SOUTH OF
LOW CENTER ACROSS WRN KS INTO S-CENTRAL NEB LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT CAP...SUGGEST STRONG HEATING AND
APPROACHING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIKELY AFTER 20Z. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG DRY LINE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN TX/...THOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS W-CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.  INITIATION MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN
WY/SERN MT WHERE COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND DEEP ASCENT WILL WEAKEN
CAPPING.

ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS WARM SECTOR BECOMES VERY
UNSTABLE WITHIN AXIS OF UPPER 60F-LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
WRN SD...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. SUPERCELLS/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWING
STRUCTURES INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB DURING THE EVENING.

ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD ENEWD
TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE WNWWD INTO
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN SHEAR...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
OVER THE DELMARVA...WITHIN 25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...THOUGH
SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
RISK ATTM.

..EVANS.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.