[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081732
SWODY2
SPC AC 081731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD TWF 45 WNW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25
ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 50 NW PHP 15 WSW ANW 35 ESE LBF 25 SSW MCK 30 SSW
GLD 35 SSE LIC 40 W LIC 20 E FCL 20 WSW CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
DTW 40 SSE CGX 35 E MLI 20 SW DBQ 25 WSW LNR 20 SW OSH 55 E OSC
...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 50 SSE UCA 25
ENE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 E FAR
50 ENE STC 15 NE RHI 15 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SW GON 15 W AVP 15 NW
AOO 50 W MRB CHO 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 S GPT 30 ENE MCB 20 S GLH 35
WNW MEM 15 SSW POF 40 WNW POF UNO 20 S HRO 25 S PRX 25 NE CLL 15 SE
PSX ...CONT... 50 NW LRD 35 WSW ABI 25 W CSM 15 NE HUT 15 N MHK 20
SSW BIE 40 SE HSI 30 ENE HLC 20 ESE EHA 40 SW LBB 15 SE P07
...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 40 ENE TCS 30 WSW GNT PGA 25 W SGU 60 W DRA 35
ENE FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 N MHS 10 NNW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES... AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL
SHIFT SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WRN
NEB...WY AND NE CO DURING THE DAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST BY THE
ETA...ETAKF AND GFS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN ID...SRN WY AND
NRN CO. AS TEMPS WARM IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY IN THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS WY...NEB AND NE CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD.


...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ON DAY2...EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM
NRN IA ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA INTO LOWER MI AND NRN NY. ALTHOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS TEMPS WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT WHICH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
CONSIDERING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED FROM EAST TO WEST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD
AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.