[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080723
SWODY2
SPC AC 080722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD 40 SW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25 ENE
3HT 55 NE 4BQ 30 N VTN 35 NW BBW 30 WNW HLC 30 ESE LIC 20 WSW CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
3B1 15 S HUL ...CONT... 15 NE PSM 50 SE UCA 10 NNE ERI ...CONT... 30
SE DTW 45 ESE MMO 25 NE MLI 20 SW MSN 65 E APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GON 35 S MSV
15 ENE AOO 30 ENE EKN 25 NW LYH 35 NNE RDU HSE ...CONT... 30 W BVE
20 S HEZ 40 NE PBF 10 SE UNO 45 SSW TBN 30 W FSM 45 SSE TYR 25 E PSX
...CONT... 10 WNW LRD 60 NNW SAT 20 N MWL 50 NNE OKC ICT 35 SW SLN
35 SW HLC 50 E LAA 35 SSE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 40
SSW ROW SAF 20 NE CEZ 25 N U17 30 ESE P38 55 NE NID 40 NNW BFL 10
WSW SCK 10 SSW MHS 50 NNW RDM 70 NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 45 W
JMS 10 SSW AXN 45 NNW EAU ESC 55 E ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH...AND BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SRN MT INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.  UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 50+ SFC DEW POINTS AS
FAR NW AS SRN MT...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO ERN CO.  THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY IN DIRECTION...SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WY/SRN MT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO ENEWD MOVING MCS/S DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO SD/CENTRAL
NEB OVERNIGHT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEARER EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET OVER PORTIONS OF NRN UT/ERN ID INTO SWRN MT ...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER STRONG.


...GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH.  SOME CONCERN ABOUT EFFECTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT
LAKES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND MORNING CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...WHERE
SUN CAN WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ADEQUATELY...EXPECT CLUSTERS/LINES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF
THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS REGION REMAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG WLY JET
OVERSPREADING SRN/ERN CANADA.  THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
ALONG WITH SMALL LINEAR CLUSTERS/BOW ECHOES SHIFTING ESEWD INTO THE
EVENING.  FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY LIKELY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD ADEQUATE HEATING DEVELOP.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH THE
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.