[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
MTC 20 NE BEH 15 E DSM 30 E HSI 25 SSW MCK 20 ESE DEN 15 SE DGW 30 S
RAP 25 E HON 45 E STC 25 NW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MFE 10 ENE JCT
35 ENE FSI 30 NE CNU 15 WSW BMG 15 NNE UNI 10 NE EKN 50 SW RIC 45 E
RWI 35 ESE EWN ...CONT... 25 SE CEW 35 SW HSV 30 SW MKL 65 SW MEM 40
ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 20 SSE 4CR 45 WNW RTN 25 W 4FC 40 NW
RWL 45 WSW BPI 30 N BAM 30 SSE RNO 10 SE SAC 60 NW SFO ...CONT... 25
SSW AST 50 SE SEA 50 NNE MSO 20 W 3HT 45 NNW REJ 55 N ATY 55 ENE ELO
...CONT... 45 SSE HUL 45 WSW ALB 25 E BFD 15 S CLE 30 SSE CGX 40 NW
IRK 25 WNW BIE 20 NW HLC 20 WSW EHA 55 S CVS 25 S INK 40 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN OREGON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TOMORROW
ACROSS NRN CA AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER NRN HIGH
PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC...WITH BAND OF VERY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. 
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL MOVE NNEWD ALONG A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO
ERN OK.  AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING A LAKE HURON/SRN WI/NERN CO LINE BY
09/12Z.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FROM NRN NEB/ERN SD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MN/NWRN WI
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 65-70F FROM NEB NEWD INTO WI
AND MI...AND DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP NEAR THE
EFFECTIVE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.  ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... SUFFICIENT
DRY AIR ALOFT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS COUPLED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD AND SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE AFTER 03-06Z.

FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND
SERN WY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 55F SPREADING TOWARD THE FRONT
RANGE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND THIS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AREA.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT INDICATE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  

...NRN CA INTO OREGON...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD
INTO NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING  WITHIN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS
OF NRN CA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.  STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

...CENTRAL/ERN TX...
ETA MODEL DEVELOPS A 35-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS
REGION DURING THE DAY CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. 
GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS /ETA..ETAKF...GFS...AND SREF/ INDICATE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE. THIS WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..WEISS.. 06/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.