[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061739
SWODY2
SPC AC 061737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
ANJ ESC GRB MSN ALO FOD 35 N SUX YKN VTN CDR RAP 35 NNW PHP 40 WNW
ABR GFK 20 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC MBS 25 NNW
MKG RFD OMA OFK ANW MHN MCK 30 NW GLD LAR CPR GCC DIK 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HVR HVR MSO
S80 65 ENE 4LW MHS 35 NNE 4BK PDX 15 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP ALM LVS LAA
20 ENE EHA CVS INK 40 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE HDO JCT FSI PNC
CNU IRK BMI 15 S HTS SSU AOO IPT 15 NNW JHW ...CONT... 15 WNW MSS
RUT 15 S PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/JET STREAKS COMPRISING BROADER SCALE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER JET CORE
APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD INLAND ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BY EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM...ANOTHER JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...MID/
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...
BUT WILL TAKE ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...VERY WARM AIR MASS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU AND ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS.  THUS...WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F...BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CAPPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/

BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +12C TO +18C IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  STRONGER LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS TIME...BUT BAND OF CONVECTION BASED ABOVE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS FORCED TO
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE 700 MB AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  THIS
WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY 
SHIFTS TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD...AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
AREAS NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET AXIS...JUST
SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. 
WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LIFT TO MAINTAIN WEAKER CAPPING...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE.  STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME REFOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING...NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF UPPER JET...ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT TIMING OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE MOSTLY AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000
TO 3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A LINGERING RISK OF TORNADOES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
REACHED.  WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICRO BURSTS.

...EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION AND SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG SEA BREEZES.  MID/UPPER
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SOUTHERN BRANCH JET/DECAYED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

..KERR.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.