[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060723
SWODY2
SPC AC 060721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
MQT 30 SSE LSE VTN 45 E DGW 45 S 81V 35 NE 81V 50 NNW ABR 30 SE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 35 SW ROW
35 WNW TCC 35 S LHX 40 ESE LIC 20 WNW SNY 10 N DGW 15 SSW GCC 40 E
4BQ 20 SSE DVL 50 WNW RRT ...CONT... 160 E APN MKE 30 ESE ALO 25 W
SUX BUB 55 WSW HLC 50 E DHT 45 ENE HOB 40 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 35 NW LUL
40 ENE ELD 50 SE HRO 35 WSW STL 30 SW HUF 20 WSW HTS 45 NNE SHD 20 E
SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 30 ESE HLN
65 NNE BOI 35 NE LMT 25 SSE EUG 30 S OLM 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ALONG THE ORE AND NRN CA COAST
MONDAY...WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW SHEARING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.  OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN STATES.
AXIS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD BEFORE STALLING FROM NERN MN INTO SWRN
SD.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
EXPECT ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
NRN MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR
LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL SUPPLY STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM
MORNING STORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THESE LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ALONG THE FRONT.  COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY OVERCOME CAP AND
SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO MN/WI
ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD CAP BREAK.  ISOLATED
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN SD/FAR ERN WY/WRN
NEB WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MIXING MAY OVERCOME CAP.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD
THEY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO MCSS OVER SD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY AFTER DARK...EITHER FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT OR THROUGH EVOLUTION
OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
FROM PORTIONS OF SD INTO THE NWRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SOUTHEAST...
RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM SEA
BREEZES AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD THEREFORE FOCUS
STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FLOW WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...THOUGH
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS.  STRONG HEATING MAY MIX THROUGH CAP AND ALLOW ISOLATED OR
CLUSTER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.