[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050735
SWODY2
SPC AC 050733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
RRT 60 W AXN 35 NNW PIR 50 SE RAP 45 SSE GCC 20 S 3HT 20 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE INL 30 SSE BRD
15 E RWF 30 ESE FSD 55 WNW OFK 25 WSW EAR 30 NW RSL 15 ENE P28 35
NNW BVO 20 E MKC 35 ENE DSM 50 SSE RST 10 WNW AUW 25 NNW ANJ
...CONT... 25 WNW PBG 10 SE SYR 30 S DUJ 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW 5I3 25
SSW BLF 10 W SHD 15 W BWI 40 NE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 60 SSW CLL
60 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 15 N GDP 15 W DGW 20 SE WRL 35 SE
JAC 25 WSW BNO 45 NW DLS 40 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW SUNDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ORE ACROSS MUCH OF
MT AND ND.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT AWAY FROM MAIN
CIRCULATION AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD AND FOCUS STRONG SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER DARK.
 THE LLJ WILL BECOME MORE SWLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOSE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.

SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE DIURNAL
MIXING...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. 
ATTM...EXPECT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE
BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT.  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/SEVERE AS STORMS
SPREAD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN MT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
EVENING.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO
ONE OR TWO BOW ECHO CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS INTO ERN MT/WRN ND.  STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH FEED OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06Z.

...MID MS RIVER INTO OH RIVER VALLEY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF
WLYS AND MEANDER ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO REMAIN ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY...AND
COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS RENEWED CONVECTIVE GROWTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.  AREA WILL
REMAIN ALONG NERN EXTENT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY
AXIS WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW AND
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR.  ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE MAY ACCOMPANY
ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING.

..EVANS.. 06/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.