[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041741
SWODY2
SPC AC 041740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
ANJ 40 SSW HTL 55 NW LAF 50 NW CGI 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI
25 NNW TCC 20 SSW TAD 25 W LHX 25 ESE LAA 30 NW GCK 40 WSW OFK 15 N
STC 15 ENE INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN
10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT
10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE
25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15
E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW
MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 10 NNE JXN
15 WNW HUF 20 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. ON
SATURDAY WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.  A
STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/
SRN APPALACHIANS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.


...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...WITH A SECOND AREA
ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY EWD TO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES.  MODELS
INDICATE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. 
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE N AND NEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM SWRN IA TO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND OK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PLUME OF
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN
THE MORNING.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD WITHIN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP...WITH
ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NEB AND THEN
SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  AS THE SSWLY LLJ INCREASES
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY A
CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  SSWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOWER-MID
60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM IA NEWD ACROSS
ERN MN/WI.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY
RE-INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL AS ACTIVITY MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 40N 137W PER WV
IMAGERY...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS ID BY 06/00Z AND TO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE PAC NW.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT
WAVE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ID BY 00Z...AND THEN EWD OVER
MT SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIVERGENT THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S ACROSS ERN WA/ORE INTO CENTRAL/NRN
ID...WITH THESE SAME VALUES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MT ON
SATURDAY.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH.  50 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR
ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN MT DURING
THE EVENING.

...COASTAL REGIONS OF MID-SRN ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO FL...
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS DUE TO THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM FL NWD TO VA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK UPPER
FORCING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES...STORMS
SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.