[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051737
SWODY2
SPC AC 051734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
GFK GFK JMS Y22 4BQ BIL LWT 80 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ AOO HGR CHO SSU
LOZ BWG EVV IND FDY CAK DUJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 30 SSE TVF
10 ESE AXN 10 ESE FRM 40 SSW FOD OMA FNB CNK HUT CNU SZL IRK MSN MTW
55 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 4SL ALS 40 SSE LIC BFF 10 SE 81V 50
WSW GCC MQM BOI BNO 70 ENE RDM PDT PUW 55 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS....

SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
LOW/TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  EXIT REGION
OF INITIAL STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND JET CORE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM...
EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...
NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE...
ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE TROUGH IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY
SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...ROCKIES INTO PLAINS...
AS CORE OF INITIAL JET STREAK PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES SUNDAY...EXIT REGION WILL NOSE
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. STRONG
MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF JET AXIS...WITH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET...STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW...
BENEATH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.  WHILE THIS COMPLICATES FORECAST...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH STRONG HEATING...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR UPPER JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS.  ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE RELATIVE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  FORCING FOR ACTIVITY IS
MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER CAPPING...AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
NORTH OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED BENEATH DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES...
WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY...  STRONGER
BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT BAND IS PROGGED TO
LAG BEHIND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  GIVEN
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER... SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER JET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY..
WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES.  THOUGH
FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  WITH
FORCING/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS APPEARS
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER.

..KERR.. 06/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.