[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040748
SWODY2
SPC AC 040746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20
SSE TVC 35 NNW CGX 35 SSW STL 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI 10 NNW
TCC 10 SSW TAD 15 W LHX 15 W GCK GRI 15 N STC 15 ENE INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN
10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT
10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE
25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15
E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW
MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 20 ESE SBN
CMI 25 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AS
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES INTO TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHEAST
WITH LARGE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.  FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND BECOME A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL
LIFT STEADILY NEWD DURING THE DAY AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY DEEPENING
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE PAC
NW.  

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
APPEARS MOST ACTIVE REGION FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OCCUR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF
SWRN KS/NERN NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES INTO THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME.  THIS REGION
WILL ALSO BECOME VERY MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS UPPER 60F TO
LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS RETURN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. 
MLCAPES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG INTO OK/CENTRAL
KS...THOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF INSTABILITY MAXIMA AND SURFACE
FEATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MCS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
REGARDLESS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING.  SSWLY H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS UNDER A MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL JET
/H5 WINDS FROM 35-45 KT/...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.  AS IS TYPICAL IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS... EXPECT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS SHIFTING ESEWD AFTER DARK.  

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS
THIS REGION AS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHIFT EWD.  MODELS FORECAST 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING
INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND
SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING. 


...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
FRIDAY...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN ID AND WRN MT.
 SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN MT DURING THE EVENING.

..EVANS.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.