[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031756
SWODY2
SPC AC 031754

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
MKO 20 W LFT 30 ENE PSX 35 WSW BWD 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC
40 WNW BFF 45 WNW ISN 30 WNW GFK 10 SE HON MHK 15 NNE MKO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
PNS 20 NE CSG 15 ENE AND 35 SW GSO 60 E DAN 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 15
NNW VRB 10 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT
45 NW DRT ...CONT... 20 ESE DUG 35 NE SAD 10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW
GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM
...CONT... 80 NW CMX 25 ESE DLH 15 SSE DBQ 50 SSW IRK 25 WSW UNO LIT
30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 25 NNE MSL 40 NE BWG 55 ENE LUK 10 SW
PIT 35 WNW CXY 15 SW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO
SERN TX/WRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MID ATLANTIC AND
SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS VALLEY ON
FRIDAY.  LARGE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/GULF
OF ALASKA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL TRACK NEWD OVER THE PAC NW TOPPING THE RIDGE BEFORE MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

IN THE EAST...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER MID MS VALLEY WILL
TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS.  ETA/ETAKF/GFS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA
PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PER COORDINATION CALL WITH HPC. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SC FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING NWD ACROSS NC TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION.

...PLAINS INTO SERN TX/LA...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MS
RIVER VALLEY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS
WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NWD. A WEAK E-W FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX
TODAY WILL TRACK NWD ACROSS NRN TX...REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD
TO NERN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MID 60S ACROSS NEB/KS...AND NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX.  VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO ERN/SERN TX.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS...GIVEN VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /SSELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT BASIN ATTM...WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK TO ERN NM AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...
ACROSS WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD SERN TX/SWRN LA WITH STORMS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY...AS THEY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE
RETURNING WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME SURFACE BASED BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NRN TX INTO SERN TX/WRN LA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED NWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LEE TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY... PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY
BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FRIDAY EVENING...ONE OR MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS/S SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD TO OK/NRN TX
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SRN MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO
FL...DESPITE MORNING CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  MODELS SUGGEST A DRY
AIR INTRUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS GA INTO SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT.  SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAINLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TOWARD FAR
SERN VA...WITH ATTENDANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT SWD INTO FL.

..PETERS.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.