[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030700
SWODY2
SPC AC 030658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
BVO 35 NNW PRX 15 NE DAL 45 NW ABI 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC
40 WNW BFF 15 N GDV 10 NNW BIS 10 SE HON MHK 25 N BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
PNS 25 NNE DHN 40 SW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VRB 10 NNW
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 55 ENE SAD
10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE
BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SSW DLH 15 NNW
CID 45 NNW COU 25 WSW UNO LIT 30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 RMG 15
SSW TRI 15 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT
45 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PLAINS STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH BROAD RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WRN U.S. A NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WEAKENING TROUGH POSITION OVER THE
SERN U.S.  SLY FLOW TO E OF TROUGH LEE OF ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.

SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SERN U.S. WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG SERN COAST WWD VICINITY FL
PANHANDLE.

...PLAINS...
NWLY FLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ON FRIDAY AS
THE SLY 20-30KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY 500MB FLOW RESULT
IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MOVE AS FAR N AS THE
DAKOTAS...AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL POTENTIALLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000
J/KG MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS.

ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE OUT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL INITIATE VICINITY HIGH PLAINS WHERE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST.  EXTENT AND LOCATION OF SEVERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS/MCS'S THAT FORM TODAY. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS AS FAR N AS ND AS MODELS DO INDICATE THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REACH THAT AREA BY AFTERNOON.


...SERN U.S...
WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ONSHORE IN THE SERN U.S...THE
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON NRN FL AND SRN GA.  CYCLONIC
MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND WEAKENING TROUGH WILL  PROVIDE SHEAR AND SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

..HALES.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.