[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021758
SWODY2
SPC AC 021756

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
TXK 40 WNW POE 20 S TPL 35 W PVW 30 WSW LHX 25 NNW LIC 45 W SNY 15 N
AIA 10 NNE MHN 40 ENE MCK 45 S RSL 35 E OKC 25 NNE TXK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO
FST 35 NNW ALM 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35
ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 60 SE
BIS 55 NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SE FYV 40 NNE GLH 25
NW MEI 10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BDR 35 WNW ALB
15 WNW MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD
ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 
MEANWHILE...THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE
TN VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES.  IN THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC WITH A LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES.  HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEYS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION...
AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
BENEATH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS INTO NEB PANHANDLE BY
04/00Z.  THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN NEB SWD TO ERN
NM/WRN TX.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
SRN HIGH PLAINS...GIVEN 25-40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP 20-25 KT
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW.

ONE OR TWO MCS WILL POSSIBLY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR SWD TO ERN TX/LA.  THIS ACTIVITY...
ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST VERY WELL BY MODEL DATA...SHOULD PROPAGATE
SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

FARTHER WNW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL-ERN NM NWD TO SERN
WY.  WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THESE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK/NRN TX.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES...
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD.  STRONG
SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED FROM ERN WA/OR EWD TO WRN MT WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
 HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN OR/ERN WA INTO ID WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DRY
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL
MT THURSDAY EVENING.  IF AREAL COVERAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...A PORTION OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
RISK.

...CAROLINAS SWD TO FL...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE 09Z ETAKF IS
THE FASTEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA.  NONE
THE LESS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER THIS REGION. 
A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT THE
VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SEVERE STORMS IN LATER OUTLOOKS WOULD WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES.

FARTHER S...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SWD ACROSS FL ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.