[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020737
SWODY2
SPC AC 020735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
DAL 15 ENE ACT 50 ESE LBB 45 NW PVW 10 NNW LHX 25 NNW LIC 50 ESE CYS
45 SE AIA 40 SE LBF 50 S RSL 30 ESE P28 50 NE OKC 30 ENE DUA 40 ESE
DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 60 SE BIS 55
NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SSE FYV 45 W JAN 40 ESE MEI
10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO
FST 35 NW LVS 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35
ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN PORTION OF ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING PERIOD
WHILE WEAKER SRN PORTION DROPS SEWD FROM TN VALLEY TO SERN COAST. 
BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. WITH NWLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SERN U.S. INTO NRN FL AND THEN
EXTENDING WWD JUST INLAND FROM GULF COAST.  TROUGHING DEVELOPING LEE
OF ROCKIES COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD INTO GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SPREAD OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS.


...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
20-30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW E OF WRN RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SLY FLOW OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL PUT IN
PLACE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF 8-9C/KM ALONG WITH THE 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND
POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN.  ADDITIONALLY THESE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS TO
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO N TX AND WRN OK.  PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY
IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.

...SERN STATES...
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SERN
STATES COUPLED WITH UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH COULD RESULT
IN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST
PERIOD.  ADDITIONALLY THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS FL
WHEN COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE WILL AID  IN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  SWD THRU CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

...NRN ROCKIES,..
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY NRN ROCKIES.  WHILE STEERING FLOW WILL ONLY
BE 25-30KT...WITH THE INVERTED VEE SOUNDING PROFILES  ISOLATED 
SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

..HALES.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.