[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011734
SWODY2
SPC AC 011732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS
JCT MAF 60 N HOB 40 W TCC RTN 25 ESE TAD 55 SSW LAA GAG FSM JBR 35
ENE MKL 25 N MSL CBM TCL MGM 15 E PNS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF
DCA CXY AVP 30 N POU ORH HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 WSW 4BQ
BFF 15 N GLD GCK 25 WSW JLN PAH 25 NNW JKL JHW SLK PWM ...CONT... 45
ENE CRP P07 HOB 25 WSW LVS GUC VEL OWY 70 SSW RDM DLS 45 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO
DELMARVA...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL DIVE SEWD AND
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT EWD THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA SWWD
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS...SWWD INTO SRN OK/WRN TX.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED THIS MORNING IN
CO...MOVING ACROSS AR/LA WED MORNING AND AL IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND STRETCH FROM NRN TX EWD INTO CENTRAL MS. SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE
FRONT AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLE FORWARDING PROPAGATING
SYSTEM SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...SRN PLAINS...
PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE AIR MASS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THE WEST.  STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SERN CO/NERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING
STORMS OVERNIGHT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...  INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND WEAKER 1
KM SHEAR INDICATE HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX WITH MLCAPES NEARING 4000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT
STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3KM...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO 
INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD TRACK SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH
A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO DEL LARVA...
AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VEERING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SPEED SHEAR ABOVE...WHICH RESULTS IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH A WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE  EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MID/LATE MORNING. THE UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR FORCING
SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH WIND
DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION.

..IMY.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.