[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010737
SWODY2
SPC AC 010735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
SBY 10 NNE CXY 25 NE IPT 35 NE BGM 15 ESE GFL 35 S CON 10 NNE HYA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
PSX AUS BWD 35 NNW ABI 10 SSE CDS 15 SSW CSM 50 WNW MLC 20 E PGO 20
ENE ELD 20 NW HEZ 25 W HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CRP 55 ESE JCT
35 ESE LBB 35 SE TCC 45 ENE LVS 35 WNW TAD 30 NNW LHX 30 NNW LBL 25
SSE P28 30 WSW UMN 15 SSW POF 20 NW LEX 30 WNW UNI 15 N FKL 30 NW
BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 3HT 25 NNW
WEY 35 WSW SUN 55 SW BOI 50 NNE BNO 25 SE PDT 60 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE  ACROSS ERN U.S. AS FLAT RIDGING
DEVELOPS EWD  FROM ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS. MAIN PORTION OF COLD
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SRN SEGMENT ROTATING SEWD
INTO SERN STATES.

A RATHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN STATES WITH MAIN CENTER
REMAINING N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY  WITH ETA SUGGESTING A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN ENGLAND
DURING AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINTAINS AN
E/SE FLOW VICINITY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE  WHICH EXTENDS WWD ACROSS N
TX.


...NERN U.S...
AS COLD TROUGH MOVES EWD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM
FROM SRN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.  IN
ADDITION DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S AND SFC TEMPS INTO LOW/MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG.

SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE N SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL WIND MAX TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK
CAP AND WITH THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL IS
LIKELY.  WITH THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE BOTH THE DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT FROM SERN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.





...SRN PLAINS...
PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE W/WNWWD ACROSS N TX/SRN OK THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE MID/UPPER WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA OF 30-40 KT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  VERY UNSTABLE  AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY N TX WITH MUCAPES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES  IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOMINANT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  STORMS SHOULD
BE MOST COMMON ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE LIFT.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD INTO WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE OVER OUTLOOK AREA THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

..HALES.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.