[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300734
SWODY2
SPC AC 300733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
INL 10 ENE STC 30 SSE RWF 15 N SUX 45 NNE BUB 45 NW VTN 55 WSW MBG
70 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 45 E PHX 40
SW GUP 45 SSE MTJ 20 WSW CAG 15 E OGD 15 N BAM 15 SE LOL 65 NW BIH
40 ENE SCK 15 ESE RBL 40 W MHS 60 SE EUG 30 E PDT 35 NE PUW 80 ENE
63S ...CONT... 35 NW LRD 20 N CLL 35 SSW MEM 30 NW SDF 25 SE FWA 15
SE JXN 30 W MBS 10 S MBL 30 SSE OSH 25 ESE OTM 35 N CNU 25 S P28 30
WNW PVW 30 SW ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN
MN....

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FILLS AND LIFTS NEWD.  THE MAIN BELT
OF WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES EWD OVER THE NRN
TIER OF STATES TO QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITHIN WHICH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DE-AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND WHERE MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA.  A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING...BUT THE MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND ERN STATES. 
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM NEB NEWD TO MN...WHERE MID-UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA WILL BE
STORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A HORIZONTAL DECOUPLING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT /CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER/ AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
FARTHER TO THE SW.  STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 30-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.